Forecast of the development trend of the paper packaging market in 2020
Release time：
2019-12-18 16:55
source：
1. One of the main lines of young industrial manufacturing in 2020: the continuous rise of the big To B (for business) market.
Midstream packaging and printing: Global smartphone shipments have gradually stabilized and rebounded, laying the foundation for scale expansion for midstream consumer electronics packaging companies. The popularity and high growth of TWS headsets, while providing incremental growth to the consumer electronics industry, has also opened new downstream demand for consumer electronics packaging companies. We are optimistic that next year, midstream consumer electronics packaging companies will continue to benefit from rising customer demand and increase business revenue and performance flexibility. On the whole, the demand for tobacco and alcohol packaging is relatively stable, and the growth of packaging companies stems from the increase in market share and the increase in the supply value of individual packaging products, leading to an increase in profitability.
2, the second main line of 2020 young industrial manufacturing: low-cost, high-frequency, non-substitute consumer goods with strong certainty.
The profitability of the papermaking industry has begun to be repaired, and the price increase will be performed again under the ban on waste. In the third quarter of this year, the comprehensive gross profit margin of the papermaking sector was 19.79%, a month-on-month increase of 4.81pct. At present, domestic packaging paper inventory is at a low level and demand is picking up in the short term. In the medium and long term, imports of waste will be completely banned by the end of next year. It is expected that the domestic and foreign waste quotas will be reduced to 7 million to 8 million tons next year, which will cause a domestic waste paper gap of about 7 million tons next year. Due to the tightening of raw materials, the price of packaging paper is likely to rise.
With regard to pulp and paper, in the short term, international wood pulp stocks have fallen, the growth rate of shipments has increased, and pulp prices have gradually stabilized. In the long run, there will be few new global production capacity in the next 4 years, and it will be lower than the growth in demand.
3. The decline in liquor production capacity affects the wine packaging industry.
Liquor production capacity decline is expected to increase the pressure of the wine packaging industry in recent years. The liquor packaging industry has a similar structure to the cigarette label. It is also basically in the process of removing tertiary enterprises, and private enterprises are gradually gaining market share. However, the decline in the overall output of the liquor industry in recent years has led to pressure on the growth of the liquor packaging industry. In 2018, the national liquor production was 8.712 million liters, a year-on-year decrease of 27.29%, and the decline was significantly larger than in 2017.
4, the cardboard corrugated cardboard inventory is at a low level.
Cardboard corrugated cardboard inventory is at a low level, and domestic demand has begun to improve. The data show that in October, the average number of days of corrugated cardboard in the country was 9.86 days, which was basically at a relatively low level in history. In terms of demand, domestic demand for containerboard and corrugated paper in September this year increased by 810,000 tons and 660,000 tons respectively. Benefiting from low inventory levels and rising demand, packaging paper prices have started to rise in September. At the same time, the peak demand season for the Chinese New Year is approaching, and we expect this round of paper prices to continue in the short term.
5. Foreign waste quotas and waste paper imports have shrunk significantly. Under the expectations of the foreign waste ban, the price of national waste may rise.
External waste quotas and waste paper imports have shrunk significantly in the past two years. In June 2018, the State Council clearly stated the goal of achieving zero waste imports by the end of 2020. Judging from the progress of policy implementation in the past two years, the external waste quota has continued to shrink, from 27.13 million tons in 2017 to 10.74 million tons approved this year. Correspondingly, the total volume of waste paper imports in China has also fallen sharply. The cumulative volume of waste paper imports in the first ten months of this year was 9.43 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 26.5%. In our opinion, in order to achieve a complete ban on foreign waste imports by the end of next year, the amount of foreign waste quota approval will continue to shrink next year, and is expected to be reduced to 7 million tons and 8 million tons.
It is difficult to increase the domestic waste paper recycling rate in the short term. Under the expectation of the foreign waste ban, the price of national waste may rise, and the tightening of raw material supply may trigger the strengthening of packaging paper prices.
With the tightening of waste paper supply, companies with overseas waste pulp production capacity have a cost advantage. We believe that there are three main ways to address the waste paper gap under the foreign waste ban: 1) Direct import of finished paper: In 2018, the number of domestic imported corrugated paper and containerboard was 11.112 million tons and 1.353 million tons, a year-on-year increase 71.32% and 51.03%. Although the growth of base paper imports is fast, the absolute volume is relatively small. Compared with the national demand for nearly 50 million tons of packaging paper each year, imported packaging paper base paper is difficult to form compensation in the short term; 2) Wood pulp and paper making: Whether domestic pulp prices or international pulp prices are at relatively low levels. But compared with waste paper, the price of wood pulp is significantly higher. If wood pulp is used for packaging paper manufacturing, while stimulating demand for wood pulp, it will also lead to increased costs and increase the price of base paper; 3) Leading paper companies ’overseas waste pulp production capacity: Of the three methods, we believe that paper companies overseas The layout of waste paper pulp production capacity is more reasonable. Compared with small and medium-sized enterprises that rely on national waste production, leading paper companies that have the ability to complete overseas waste paper recycling and pulp will have a cost advantage under the tightening of raw material supply.
6. In the short term, the pulp price has stabilized. There will not be much new capacity for broad-leaf pulp in the next 4 years, and there is a basis for pulp price recovery.
In the short term, pulp prices stabilized, and port inventories began to decline. In September, the inventory days of international wood pulp ports were 44 days, a decrease of 4 days month-on-month, and the inventory volume decreased by 0.48% month-on-month. In October, the inventory fell by 5.29%. The global shipment of wood pulp was 4.75 million tons in September, a year-on-year increase of 3.17% and 4.03% respectively. Global wood pulp demand has picked up in the short term. Benefiting from this, the international pulp price began to stabilize in September this year, and the internal pulp price also basically stopped the downward trend in November. In the short term, the price of wood pulp has certain support, and the probability of continued decline is small.
In the next 4 years, there will not be much new capacity for broad-leaf pulp, and there will be a basis for pulp price recovery. According to PPPC statistics, the global supply of broadleaf pulp is expected to be 39.57 million tons this year, a slight increase of 0.51% year-on-year, and the demand is 33.32 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.95%. In the next 4 years, it is estimated that the global new-leaf pulp production capacity will be 2.91 million tons, and the new demand will be 3.91 million tons. On the other hand, according to Bloomberg statistics, it is estimated that the global new wood pulp production capacity will be only 1.3 million tons next year. Taken together, there is not much new global wood pulp production capacity in the future, and to a certain extent, demand growth is faster than capacity growth. Therefore, in the medium and long term, the price of wood pulp has a basis for a mild rise.
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